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MTSU Poll National Political Report, Spring 2010
President Obama’s job approval
continues to decline among Tennesseans. For
the first time since Barack Obama’s inauguration, a majority of Tennesseans
disapprove of the job he is doing as president. In further contrast to past
poll results, a majority of the state’s independents now disapprove of Obama as
well. Worry about their families’ financial futures seems to be driving
independents’ disapproval. (Contact Jason
Reineke, 615.494.7746)
Tennesseans’
confidence in Obama administration mixed across fronts. Most Tennesseans express little or no
confidence in the administration’s ability to improve the economy or reform
health care. But most say that they are confident in the administration's
ethical standards and ability to manage foreign policy. (Contact Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746)
Frozen Washington: Neither Obama nor Republicans doing
enough to work together. A
plurality of Tennesseans say President Obama isn’t doing enough to cooperate
with Congressional Republicans, and a majority say Republicans aren’t doing
enough to work with Obama. Beliefs about Obama’s cooperation break along party
lines. Most independents who get their news from Fox think he’s not doing
enough, while those who get news from other sources think that he is. But even
self-identified Tennessee Republicans think Congressional Republicans aren’t
doing enough to cooperate. (Contact Jason
Reineke, 615.494.7746)
Tennessee approves of Obama’s Response to Haiti
earthquake. Most
Tennesseans approve of President Obama’s response to the earthquake in Haiti,
but that approval doesn’t seem to have an impact on approval of Obama’s overall
job performance. In contrast, when Tennesseans disapproved of then-President
Bush’s handling of the response to hurricane Katrina, it played an important
role in changing overall approval of Bush’s job performance to disapproval. (Contact Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746)
Health reform: Most Tennesseans want a do-over. Most Tennesseans think Congress should
scrap what they’ve done so far and start work on a new health reform bill,
including majorities of independents and Republicans. A plurality of Democrats say Congress should
pass something like it is considering now. (Contact
Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746)
Iraq
a mistake that’s going well, Afghanistan the right choice but progress
uncertain. Most
say that it was a mistake to send U.S. troops to Iraq, but that the war there
is going well now. Following the
announcement of a major deployment of additional troops to Afghanistan,
Tennesseans are ambivalent on that war’s progress, but most say it was the
right decision to send troops there in the first place. (Contact Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746)
Citizens United v. F.E.C:
Tennesseans just not sure in debate about corporate speech. Residents ambivalence on the decision
and its underlying principles. (Contact Jason
Reineke, 615.494.7746)
President
Obama’s job approval continues to decline among Tennesseans
(Contact
Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746)
For the first time since Barack Obama’s
inauguration, a majority of Tennessean’s say they disapprove of the job he is
doing as President. Fifty-one percent disapprove, while only 42 percent say
they approve, with the remaining 7 percent saying that they don’t know or refusing
to answer the question. The difference between those who approve and those who
disapprove in Tennessee is outside the MTSU poll’s margin of error, meaning
that clearly more Tennesseans disapprove of Obama’s job performance than
approve.
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Figure 1: Tennessee presidential job approval for Obama |
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Source:
MTSU poll |
For
comparison, according to pollster.com’s aggregation of national polls as of
February 27, 2010, 48 percent of Americans currently approve of the job Obama
is doing as president, and 47 percent disapprove.
Approval breaks as expected along
party lines with 84 percent of Democrats saying they approve while only 16
percent disapprove and 90 percent of Republicans saying that they disapprove while
only 10 percent approve. However, in a marked difference from last fall’s poll[1],
a majority of Tennessee’s independents, fully 60 percent, now say that they disapprove
of the job Obama is doing as president while only 40 percent approve. Thirty percent of the sample identified
themselves as Democrats, 31 percent as Republicans, and 36 percent as
independents, with the remaining participants saying they didn’t know their
partisan identification or refusing to answer the question.
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Table 1: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is
handling his job as President?” |
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Approve |
Disapprove |
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Tennessee
Overall |
42 % |
51 % |
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Nation
Overall |
48 % |
47 % |
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Tennessee |
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Democrats |
84 % |
16 % |
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Republicans |
10 % |
90 % |
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Independents |
40 % |
60 % |
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National
percentage estimates from pollster.com |
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For independents, the main factor in
presidential job approval is their perception of their families’ future
financial security. Among the 42 percent
of independents who say they are not at all worried or not too worried about
their family’s financial well being over the next few years, 51 percent approve
of the job Obama is doing as president while 49 percent disapprove. But among
the 58 percent of independents who say they are either somewhat or very worried
about their family’s financial well being over the next few years, 69 percent
disapprove of the job Obama was doing as president while only 31 percent
approve.
Tennesseans’ confidence in Obama
administration mixed across fronts
(Contact Jason Reineke,
615.494.7746)
Tennesseans express a lack of
confidence when it came to the Obama administration’s two signature domestic policy
issues. Only 46 percent off Tennesseans
say they are very or somewhat confident in the administration’s ability to
improve the economy, while 52 percent say that they’re not too or not at all
confident. Two percent don’t know how confident they are in the
administration’s ability to improve the economy or refuse to answer the
question.
There is even less confidence in the
Obama administration’s ability to reform health care, with only 35 percent
saying they are very or somewhat confident in the administration’s ability to
reform health care and fully 63 percent saying they are either not too or not
at all confident. The remaining respondents say that they don’t know how
confident they are in the administration’s ability to reform health care or
refuse to answer the question.
However, in terms of ethics and
foreign policy, most Tennesseans express confidence in the Obama
administration. Fifty-five percent say that they are either somewhat of very
confident in the Obama administration’s ethical standards, while only 35
percent say they are either not too or not at all confident in the
administration’s ethics. The remaining
10 percent either say they don’t know what they think about the administrations
ethical standards or refuse to answer the question.
When asked about the Obama
administration’s ability to manage American foreign policy, 51 percent of
Tennesseans say they are very or somewhat confident in the administration, with
only 40 percent saying they are either not too or not at all confident. The
remaining 9 percent say that they don’t know how confident they are in the
administration’s ability to manage American foreign policy or refuse to answer
the questions.
Frozen Washington: Neither Obama,
Republicans doing enough to work together
(Contact Jason Reineke,
615.494.7746)
At 49 percent, a plurality of
Tennesseans say President Barack Obama is not doing enough to cooperate with
Republicans in Congress. Only 40 percent say that Obama is doing enough to
cooperate. The remaining poll participants say they don’t know whether Obama is
doing enough or refused to answer the question. Responses break predictably
according to party identification, with 82 percent of Democrats saying that Obama
is doing enough to cooperate while only 18 percent say he is not, and 89
percent of Republicans saying he’s not doing enough while only 11 percent say
that he is. Among independents, 59
percent say Obama isn’t doing enough to cooperate, while 41 percent say that he
is.
Among independents, opinions of
whether Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans in Congress seem to
be driven primarily by the television news outlet the individual watches most
often. Among the 37 percent of
independents who watch Fox News most often, 79 say Obama is not doing enough to
cooperate with Republicans while only 21 percent say that he is. But among the 63 percent of independents who
watch some other television news outlet most frequently, 52 percent say that
Obama is doing enough to cooperate, while 48 percent say that he is not.
A sizeable majority of Tennesseans, 70
percent, say that Republicans in Congress are not doing enough to work with
President Obama, while only 18 percent say that they are. The remaining 12 percent say they don’t know whether
Republicans in Congress are doing enough to cooperate or refuse to answer the
question. Furthermore, this opinion
persists across party lines – 94 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of
independents, and even 66 percent of self-identified Republicans all say that
Republicans in Congress are not doing enough to cooperate with President Obama
as compared to 6, 21, and 34 percent, respectively, who say that congressional
Republicans are doing enough to cooperate with the President.
Tennessee approves of Obama’s Response
to Haiti earthquake
(Contact Jason Reineke,
615.494.7746)
Seventy-seven percent of Tennesseans
approve of how President Barack Obama is handling the response to the
earthquake in Haiti. Only 10 percent
disapprove; the remaining 13 percent either don’t know how they feel about the
response or refuse to answer the question.
As a rough comparison, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, only 44
percent of Tennesseans approved of how then-President George W. Bush was
handling the response to that natural disaster, with 48 percent who disapproved
and 8 percent who didn’t know or refused to answer the question. Although disapproval of the handling of
Katrina played an important role in changing Tennessean’s attitudes toward Bush
(from approval of the job he was doing overall to disapproval), approval of
Obama’s response to the Haiti earthquake doesn’t seem to be having an impact on
Tennesseans’ evaluation of his job performance overall.
Health reform: Most Tennesseans want a
do-over
(Contact Jason Reineke,
615.494.7746)
When asked what Congress should do
next on health reform, a majority of Tennesseans, 53 percent, say Congress
should start on a new bill. Twenty-two
percent say Congress should pass a bill similar those the House and Senate have
passed. Only sixteen percent say
Congress should stop working on health reform altogether.
Among Democrats, a plurality, 49
percent, say Congress should pass something similar to what’s being considered
now, 48 percent say Congress should start on a new bill, and only 3 percent say
Congress should stop working on health reform.
Most Republicans, 61 percent, say Congress should start on a new bill, followed
by 33 percent who say Congress should stop working on health reform, and only 6
percent who say that Congress should pass something similar to what it’s
currently considering. Of course,
perceptions of what a new bill would or should entail likely differ greatly
between Democrats and Republicans who prefer that course of action.
Most of Tennessee’s independents, 63
percent, say Congress should start work on a new health reform bill, followed
by 19 percent who say something like the current bills should be passed, and 18
percent who say Congress should just stop working on health reform.
Iraq a mistake that’s going well,
Afghanistan the right choice but progress uncertain
(Contact Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746)
Consistent with responses to the last few MTSU polls,
most Tennesseans, 58 percent, think the war in Iraq is going either moderately
or very well, with 34 percent saying that it is going either moderately or very
badly. The remaining 8 percent either
don’t know how things are going or refused to answer the question. Despite the generally positive attitude
toward the war’s progress, a plurality of Tennesseans, 49 percent, say the Iraq
war was a mistake, while only 43 percent say it was not, with 9 percent saying
they don’t know or refusing to answer the question.
Just after the announcement of a major
deployment of additional troops to the Afghanistan in mid-February, Tennesseans
are more ambivalent on that war’s progress.
A plurality, 46 percent, say the war in Afghanistan is going either
moderately or very badly, and 42 percent say it is going either moderately or
very well. The remaining poll
respondents either don’t know how things are going in Afghanistan or refuse to
answer the question. But a majority of
Tennesseans, 54 percent, say sending troops to Afghanistan in the first place
was not a mistake, while only 37 percent say that it was, with the remainder
saying they don’t know or refusing to answer the question.
Citizens
United v. F.E.C: Tennesseans just not sure in debate
about corporate speech
(Contact Jason Reineke,
615.494.7746)
When asked about the recent Supreme
Court decision extending free speech protection to corporate spending on
advertisements endorsing or opposing particular candidates for public office
during elections, Tennessee seems a little confused by the whole thing.
A plurality of 47 percent say that
they either disapprove or strongly disapprove of the decision, while only 15
percent say that they approve or strongly approve. Thirty-eight percent say
they aren’t sure what they think or refuse to answer the question, indicating a
relatively large amount of uncertainty on the issue. Although participants were
randomly assigned to different conditions where the question emphasized the
free speech or corporate influence aspects of the decision, or mentioned both,
this framing did not have a statistically significant effect on responses.
Tennesseans are similarly ambivalent about
the principles underlying the decision.
Forty percent either agree or strongly agree that the First Amendment
gives corporations the same speech rights as individuals, but 37 percent
disagree or strongly disagree, and 24 percent aren’t sure. Twenty-four percent
agree or strongly agree that the First Amendment protects how money is spent
the same as it does speech, while 40 percent disagree or strongly disagree with
that interpretation, and 36 percent aren’t sure or refuse to answer the
question.
Sample and method
The poll was
conducted by telephone Feb. 15-27, 2010, by
students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State
University. Students interviewed 634 people age 18 or older chosen at random
from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of ± 4
percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Theoretically, this
means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the
population within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such
as question wording, also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are
greater for sample subgroups.
The sample
varied somewhat from the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest available estimates for
age, race and gender proportions within the state. Such variation commonly
occurs because certain demographic groups are more difficult to contact. The
data were thus weighted to more closely match Census projections for these
demographics. Here are the Census data, the sample data, and the weights:
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Unadjusted |
Adjusted |
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Census |
Sample |
Sample |
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Percent |
Percent |
Percent |
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Age: |
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18-34 |
29.5 |
12.5 |
29.5 |
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35-49 |
28.3 |
23.3 |
28.3 |
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50-64 |
24.9 |
35.3 |
25.0 |
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65+ |
17.3 |
28.8 |
17.2 |
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Race: |
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White |
82.1 |
87.2 |
81.7 |
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Black |
15.5 |
9.0 |
15.7 |
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Other |
2.4 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
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Gender: |
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Male |
48.0 |
48.3 |
47.6 |
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Female |
52.0 |
51.7 |
52.4 |
Small variations in reported percentages (1 percent or less) sometimes result
from rounding variations in different statistical procedures or the way
different programs handle population weights. Weights also can increase the reported
sample size in frequency tables. And, in our summary, where reported
percentages do not otherwise total 100 percent, small numbers of those who are
undecided or refused to answer may have been omitted.