Research Report
Middle Tennessee Poll,
March 15, 1999
College of Mass Communication, Box 391
Middle Tennessee State University
Murfreesboro, Tennessee 37132
615/898-2335; FAX 615/898-5682
Robert Wyatt, Director, (615) 898-2335,
rwyatt@mtsu.edu
Ken Blake, Operations Director, (615)
898-2226, kblake@mtsu.edu
Teresa Mastin, Public Affairs Director,
(615) 904-8239, tmastin@mtsu.edu
Summary of Major Findings
- Support strong for food tax cut offset by tax increase on large, medium businesses. A convincing majority (68 percent) of Middle Tennesseans favors eliminating the sales tax on food by increasing taxes on large- (65 percent) or medium-sized businesses. Details.
- Approval of lottery for education very high. More than two-thirds (67 percent) favor a state lottery, a figure that increases to 73 percent if lottery proceeds go to education. Details.
- High spending priority for schools, retarded, environment. A majority says the state is not spending enough on elementary and secondary schools (63 percent), the mentally retarded (57 percent), the environment (55 percent), and the handicapped (53 percent). Substantial pluralities also say the state is not spending enough on mental health (49 percent), foster care (46 percent), state universities and colleges (45 percent), TennCare (44 percent), mass transit (43 percent), law enforcement (41 percent), and community colleges and technical schools (40 percent). Details.
- Solid support for equal pay among teachers. A solid majority (79 percent) favor equalizing pay for urban and rural teachers. Most say Middle Tennessee schools are good, but private schools are better. Meanwhile, the charter school concept gets mixed reviews. Details.
- Backing strong for mandatory seatbelt use. More than three out of four Middle Tennesseans (81 percent) favor requiring all drivers and passengers to wear seatbelts. Fewer – but still a majority – say police should be authorized to pull over a vehicle if its driver or a passenger isn’t wearing a seatbelt (55 percent). Details.
- Thumbs up on graduated driver’s licenses and tougher drunk driving laws. A little less than two-thirds of Middle Tennesseans would like a graduated driver’s license program for teens. About the same proportion would like to lower the maximum legal blood-alcohol content, making DUI convictions easier to obtain. Details.
- No pay raises for legislators. Only about a fourth (25 percent) of Middle Tennesseans support giving state legislators a pay increase. The rest say legislators’ pay should stay the same (52 percent) or decrease (12 percent). Details.
- Other topics:
- Approval ratings high for Clinton, Sundquist, Legislature
- too many highway projects under way
- home health care for elderly popular
- importing convicts nixed
- smoking laws a local matter
- death penalty for murder supported
- prison privatization still a bad idea
- Education a hot topic
- BOR/UT should merge
- Support steady for commuter rail
- Teen smoking laws need toughened
- Politically active Middle Tennesseans relatively rare
- Sample and method
Details on Major Findings
Support strong for food tax cut offset by tax increase on large, medium businesses
A convincing majority (68 percent) of Middle Tennesseans favors eliminating the sales tax on food as proposed by Gov. Don Sundquist. By a similar large majority (65 percent), they favor raising taxes on large business to pay for the cut, and a solid majority (54 percent) would also raise taxes on medium-sized businesses. However, less than one-third (27 percent) would increase taxes on small businesses to eliminate the sales tax on food.
Women (73 percent) favored eliminating the food tax by an even larger majority than men do (63 percent). There was no difference among political or other demographic categories concerning support for raising taxes on big businesses.
Majorities also supported raising taxes on medium businesses among the lowest (58 percent of those with families making $25,000 and under) and highest (66 percent of those making $40,000 and above) income groups but only 39 percent of those between $25-40,000 proved supportive.
On support for taxing small businesses, education proved the best predictor, with about one-fifth (21 percent) of those with a high-school education or less supporting a raise, a figure edging up to 31 percent among those with some college or above.
Support for a state lottery is about as high as for the proposed tax reforms. More than two-thirds (67 percent) also favor a state lottery, a figure that rises to 73 percent if the lottery proceeds go to education. However, only 40 percent would use a free lottery ticket as an incentive for people to vote.
In general, support for a lottery is even higher among males (73 percent) than among females (63 percent). If lottery spending goes to education, age becomes an important predictor, with 85 percent of those age 18-34 and 72 percent of those 35-69 in favor, a figure that drops to just above a majority (52 percent) for those 65 and over.
A good majority says the state is not spending enough on elementary and secondary schools (63 percent), the mentally retarded (57 percent), the environment (55 percent), and the handicapped (53 percent).
The priority for elementary and secondary school spending is particularly strong among Middle Tennesseans age 18-49, where fully 71 percent say the state is spending too little. This age split is also important when environmental spending is assessed, with nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of those 18-49 believing there is too little spending, compared with only 39 percent of those 50 and up. Priorities for the mentally retarded and handicapped, interestingly, seem uniform among all age, gender, income, and political groups.
Substantial pluralities also say the state is not spending enough on mental health (49 percent), foster care (46 percent), state universities and colleges (45 percent), TennCare (44 percent), mass transit (43 percent), law enforcement (41 percent), and community colleges and technical schools (40 percent).
With mental health, those on the far left, liberals and middle-of-the-roaders are more likely to think spending was too light (55 percent) than conservatives or those on the far right (39 percent). Where foster care is concerned, those with family incomes between $15-25,000 seem most concerned about low spending (57 percent), a figure that drops to a straight majority for those making more. Among the poorest respondents making under $15,000, support, paradoxically, drops low, with only 36 percent regarding spending as too little
With spending on colleges and universities, age again is an important indicator, with only 22 percent of those over 65 reporting the state spends too little, while for those 18-49, nearly a majority (49 percent) feels too little is spent. Where TennCare is concerned, the split occurs greatest between Republicans, only 31 percent of whom think the state spends too little, and Democrats, where the figure is 55 percent. For mass transit, support rises with income, reaching a high (59 percent) among those whose families make greater than $50,000.
Far fewer feel that the state is not spending enough on highway maintenance (22 percent), welfare (22 percent), and new highway construction (15 percent). In fact, about half think that spending on highway maintenance (51 percent) and new construction (52 percent) are about right. Only one-third (33 percent) feel welfare spending is about right.
These three items are the only spending issues where substantial numbers think the state is already spending too much. For example, 18 percent feel there is too much spending on highway maintenance; 33 percent feel spending is too high on welfare, and 24 percent feel new highway construction receives too much money.
Number of years lived in Middle Tennessee is important in evaluating highway spending, with only 16 percent of those living here 18 years or less feeling spending is too little, compared with 26 percent who have resided in the area 19 years or more.
Most respondents (79 percent) say the legislature should equalize the pay of urban and rural teachers. Meanwhile, almost half (49 percent) oppose charter schools. Charter schools have substantial support (73 percent) from parents who are satisfied with their children’s education, and non-parents (49 percent) who are not satisfied with the education Middle Tennessee children receive.
If charter schools are to operate, most Middle Tennesseans (79 percent) say the schools’ teachers should be licensed. Respondents (57 percent) who do not have children of high school age or younger are more supportive of charter schools than are Middle Tennesseans (43 percent) with children in that age range. Lack of support for charter schools is substantially greater among those living outside Metro Nashville-Davidson County (74 percent) than those living inside Metro Nashville-Davidson County (26 percent).
Blacks (9 percent) are vastly less supportive of charter schools than whites (90 percent). And Democrats (24 percent) and Independents (25 percent) are less supportive than Republicans (39 percent). Middle Tennesseans with household incomes of $25,000-$40,000 (26 percent) and more than $50,000 (36 percent) are most supportive of charter schools. Most Middle Tennesseans say Middle Tennessee schools are good, but private education institutions, both K-12 and higher education, were rated excellent more often than public education institutions.
About 80 percent of Middle Tennesseans favor making seatbelt use mandatory. Seventeen percent oppose the idea, and about 2 percent don’t know. Fewer, but still a majority, (55 percent) like the idea of allowing police to pull over a car if the car’s driver or a passenger isn’t wearing a seatbelt. Forty-one percent oppose allowing police to do so, and another 4 percent don’t know.
Both measures have significantly more support among women than among men. Eighty-seven percent of women in Middle Tennessee favor a mandatory seatbelt use law compared to 78 percent of men. Similarly, 69 percent of women say police should be able to stop a car if its driver or a passenger isn’t buckled up, but only 44 percent of men favor the idea.
Thumbs up on graduated driver’s licenses and tougher drunk driving laws
Sixty-two percent of Middle Tennesseans like the idea of giving teens "graduated" driver’s licenses. A graduated driver’s license is a license that limits driving privileges until one gets older and passes more tests. One-third (33 percent) oppose the idea, and another 6 percent don’t know. Not surprisingly, age is a strong factor in opinions on the issue. Only 47 percent of Middle Tennesseans age 18-21 favor graduated driver’s licenses compared to 67 percent of Middle Tennesseans age 22 or older. Gender makes a difference, too. Females (74 percent) are far more supportive of graduated licenses than are males (55 percent).
Meanwhile, 65 percent of Middle Tennesseans favor lowering the maximum legal blood-alcohol content for drivers from .10 to .08. Thirty percent oppose lowering the maximum, and 5 percent don’t know. As with opinion on graduated licenses, gender is a strong predictor. Three-fourths of women support lowering the maximum compared to less than two-thirds (61 percent) of men.
Furthermore, rural Middle Tennesseans are more supportive of lowering the limit than are urban Middle Tennesseans. Among people living outside Metro Nashville-Davidson County, 71 percent favor lowering the limit compared to 60 percent among those living inside Metro Nashville-Davidson County. The contrast is similar between people living outside and inside the broader Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Davidson County as well as the surrounding counties. Fully three-fourths of those living outside the MSA support lowering the limit compared to not quite two-thirds (64 percent) of those living within the area.
Only about one in four Middle Tennesseans (25 percent) would like to see the state’s legislators get a pay increase. Most want legislators’ pay to stay the same (52 percent) or decrease (13 percent). Eleven percent don’t know.
While a majority of both men and women oppose legislative pay raises, proportionally more women (33 percent) than men (21 percent) are among the quarter of Middle Tennesseans who favor legislative pay raises. Similarly, about a third (32 percent) of Middle Tennesseans with a high school degree or less favor legislative pay raises compared to 29 percent of those with only some college or trade school experience and 19 percent of those with college degrees. Meanwhile, minorities (43 percent) are more likely than whites (25 percent) to support increasing legislators’ pay, and liberals (36 percent) like the idea more than do conservatives (18 percent) or moderates (28 percent).
Most approve of Clinton, Sundquist, Legislature. President Bill Clinton continues to enjoy support among Middle Tennesseans despite his impeachment and acquittal on perjury and obstruction of justice charges in connection with his admitted affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky. Nearly two-thirds of Middle Tennesseans (60 percent) say they approve of the job Clinton is doing as president. The Fall 1998 Middle Tennessee Poll recorded a 66 percent approval rating for the president.
As in Fall 1998, women were more likely to approve of Clinton (68 percent) than were men (58 percent). Clinton also enjoys more support among those with a high school education or less (72 percent) than among those with some college experience (56 percent) or college degrees (64 percent). One of the strongest predictors of support for Clinton is race, with 90 percent of minorities approving of him compared to 60 percent of whites. Not surprisingly, political orientation is a strong correlate as well. Three-fourths (75 percent) of liberals approve of the president, compared to 65 percent of moderates and 45 percent of conservatives.
Meanwhile, nearly a third (30 percent) say history will remember Clinton as a "poor" president. Another quarter (26 percent) say history will remember him as a "fair" president, while about another third (30 percent) say he will be remembered as a "good" president. Only 8 percent say he will be remembered as one of history’s "great" presidents. Six percent don’t know. The Congress whose Senate tried and acquitted Clinton will fare slightly worse in the history books, Middle Tennesseans predict. Thirty percent say history will give the Congress a "poor" rating, 43 percent a "fair" rating, 18 percent a "good" rating, and 2 percent a "great" rating. Eight percent don’t know.
Support for Gov. Don Sundquist remains strong among Middle Tennesseans. More than two-thirds (68 percent) approve of the governor, now in his second term. About the same proportion (63 percent) expressed approval of him in Fall 1998. Furthermore, the governor’s appeal is consistent across measures of gender, urbanization, age, education, and years in Tennessee. His support falters slightly, however, among minorities who are less likely to approve of him (68 percent) than are whites (85 percent). Not surprisingly, political orientation plays a role here, too. Among liberals, 71 percent approve of the governor, compared to 87 percent of moderates and 84 percent of conservatives.
Democratic leaders in the state Legislature have the approval of 56 percent of Middle Tennesseans. Another 18 percent disapprove and, significantly, more than a quarter (26 percent) don’t know.
Too many highway projects under way. While more than two-thirds (67 percent) of Middle Tennesseans feel that all the current spending on highways is necessary, a similar percentage (66 percent) feels that too many road projects have been started at once.
With highway spending, there are some racial differences, with 69 percent of whites supporting the spending compared to 58 percent of blacks. And among whites, spending is supported as necessary by 74 percent of those within the eight-county Metropolitan Statistical Area but by 62 percent of those outside. Those 49 and younger (70 percent) were also more likely than those 50 and above (51 percent) to believe that the state has started too many road projects at one time.
Home healthcare for elderly highly popular. Fully 90 percent of respondents say the state should make more home healthcare available to the elderly, a finding uniform across all political and demographic groups.
Imported convicts nixed. More than two-thirds (68 percent) of respondents say the state's private prisons should not be allowed to take out-of-state prisoners, with males (29 percent) more favorable than females (16 percent).
Smoking laws a local matter. Just over half (54 percent) of Middle Tennesseans think city and county governments, not the state, should control laws on smoking in restaurants and public buildings. About a third (34 percent) say control belongs in the hands of state government, and 12 percent aren’t sure. Age and education are important factors. Support for local control over smoking laws is greater among Middle Tennesseans age 50 and older (68 percent) than among those ages 18 to 49 (57 percent). Meanwhile, Middle Tennesseans with college degrees are more likely to favor local control (70 percent) than are Middle Tennesseans with only some college or trade school course work (59 percent) or no college experience (56 percent). Race may play a role, too, with 63 percent of white Middle Tennesseans favoring local control compared to only 50 percent of minorities.
Death penalty for murder supported. More than two-thirds of Middle Tennesseans (70 percent) say people convicted of murder should be put to death. Twenty-one percent oppose capital punishment for murder, and 9 percent don’t know. Support for capital punishment wavers somewhat across gender, with 71 percent of women supporting it compared to 84 percent of men. Also, whites are more likely to support capital punishment (79 percent) than are minorities (60 percent), and both conservatives (82 percent) and moderates (82 percent) like the idea better than liberals (64 percent).
Prison privatization still a bad idea. A majority of Middle Tennesseans (60 percent) think privatizing the state’s prison system would be a bad idea. A fourth (25 percent) think it’s a good idea, and a sizable 15 percent don’t know. The Fall 1998 Middle Tennessee Poll found that 48 percent of Middle Tennesseans thought prison privatization was a bad idea, 45 percent thought it was a good idea, and 8 percent didn’t know.
Education a hot topic. Middle Tennesseans are both interested in and talking about education. Approximately 47 percent of the region’s residents say they talk about education often. The top three reasons given for doing so are 1) education’s effect on life (56 percent), 2) to know more about education (48 percent), and 3) to understand education better (45 percent).
Board of Regents, University of Tennessee should merge. More than half of Middle Tennesseans (56 percent) say the Board of Regents and the University of Tennessee governing bodies should merge. Respondents perceive little difference between the quality of the schools directed by the governing bodies. Almost three quarters of the sample say colleges directed by the governing bodies are either excellent or good (BOR, 73 percent, UT, 70 percent).
Support steady for commuter rail. Fifty-seven percent of Middle Tennesseans would rather build a commuter rail system instead of more roads. Thirty-four percent want more roads instead of a commuter rail system, and 9 percent don’t know. The Fall 1998 Middle Tennessee Poll found that 48 percent of Middle Tennesseans supported focusing on developing a commuter rail system instead of on constructing more roads. The uptick in support for a commuter rail system is negligible, given the two polls’ error margins.
Teen smoking laws need toughened. Most Middle Tennesseans (56 percent) say they’d like to see laws on teen smoking made tougher. About a third (33 percent) say the laws should stay the same, and 7 percent say the laws should be made easier. Four percent don’t know. Women (66 percent) are significantly more likely than men (51 percent) to favor stricter teen smoking laws. A slight majority of Middle Tennesseans who hold college degrees (52 percent) support toughening teen smoking laws, but support is stronger among those with only some college or trade school course work (60 percent) or no college experience (64 percent).
Politically active Middle Tennesseans relatively rare. During the past five years, about 40 percent of Middle Tennesseans contacted a candidate, and about the same proportion (39 percent) attended a public affairs meeting. But less than a quarter of Middle Tennesseans wrote a letter to an editor (24 percent), called into a talk show (21 percent), spoke at a public meeting (24 percent), or worked in a political campaign (19 percent). Only about 11 percent took part in a public protest. In general, the politically active Middle Tennessean is most likely to be a white male, 35-64 years of age, who is a member of the Republican party, has a bachelor’s college degree or above and an annual household income of more than $50,000.
Sample and Method. The poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 15 through March 3, 1999 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 610 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the 39 counties making up Middle Tennessee. The poll has an estimated error margin of ± 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the sample within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such as question wording also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are greater for sample subgroups.
The sample varied somewhat from estimates
for age, race and gender proportions obtained from 1997 U.S. Census Bureau
for the Middle Tennessee region because certain demographic groups are
more difficult to contact. The data were thus weighted to more closely
match Census estimates for these demographics. Here are the relevant percentages:
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Age 18-34 | 33.51% | 33.00% | 1.02 | 34.10% |
| Age 35-49 | 31.47% | 36.30% | 0.87 | 32.00% |
| Age 50-64 | 19.49% | 19.80% | 0.98 | 18.90% |
| Age 65 up | 15.54% | 10.80% | 1.44 | 15.10% |
| Male | 47.87% | 49.20% | 0.97 | 46.80% |
| Female | 52.13% | 50.80% | 1.03 | 53.20% |
| White | 86.13% | 85.20% | 1.01 | 86.20% |
| Black | 12.50% | 10.20% | 1.23 | 12.40% |
| Other | 1.37% | 4.70% | 0.29 | 1.40% |
The Middle Tennessee Poll, begun in 1998, is a twice-a-year assessment of attitudes in Middle Tennessee regarding free expression, faith in major institutions, and current political issues. The poll is funded by the John Seigenthaler Chair, Middle Tennessee State University, the university's College of Mass Communication, and the university's School of Journalism. The university's Office of Communication Research sponsors and administers the poll.