|
|
Satisfaction
with
Worries about the economy - especially among the state's
poorer and poorly educated residents - appear to be driving the
decline. Economic concerns for such people also may have boosted feelings that
the economy is the most important issue in the presidential election and the
most important problem facing the state.
“Life is good for those standing on the top rung of the state’s economy,” said Dr. Robert Wyatt, director of communication research at MTSU. “On the lower rungs, though, the climate is turning rapidly grim for many, with issues like health care, financial hard times and crime posing more significant problems. Unlike most ladders, this one is shakiest and scariest at the bottom rather than the top.”
The MTSU Poll State Barometer now
stands at 57 out of 100, down from 62 just last fall. Computed from measures of
three interrelated attitudes – approval of the governor, perceived outlook for
the state’s economy, and evaluation of the direction the state seems to be
going – the barometer provides a general picture of Tennesseans’ satisfaction
with conditions in the state. The barometer’s first reading, taken in fall
2005, stood at 51 and stayed there through spring 2006. It soared to 61 in fall
2006 – paralleling a stock market boom – then edged further up in spring 2007.
The index then declined slightly last fall ahead of the precipitous drop
observed this spring.
Education
makes big difference in outlook
The barometer’s present reading is clearly
tied to economic security and well-being. For example, among those with
high-school educations or less, the barometer averages 46. Among those with some college or trade school, the
barometer rises to 55. And for those with collge degrees or above, the
barometer stands at a sunny 68. A nearly identical trend appears across income
levels.
Furthermore, all three of the barometer's component measures - approval of the governor, optimism about the state's economy, and general satisfaction with how things are going in the state - rise significantly with both education and income.
Economic concerns factor into
presidential race.
The economic worries reflected in the barometer appear to
be influencing Tennesseans's attitudes toward the presidential election. The economy
tops a list of issues that Tennesseans consider most important in the upcoming
presidential election. A plurality of 34% say the economy will be the most
important issue to them when they decide how to vote for president. Nineteen percent choose the
Democrats,
independents, and Republicans all pick the economy as the top issue – a notably
rare cross-party consensus on what matters most. But political party heavily
influences how the remaining issues are ranked.
Among Democrats and independents, for example, the
“Interestingly,
while the economy dominates as the election's most important issue for
Tennesseans, the race’s outcome here may swing on other issues like the Iraq
war and healthcare,” said Dr. Ken Blake, professor of journalism at MTSU and
director of the MTSU Poll. “On these issues, the independent voters whom the
eventual presidential hopefuls will try to woo seem to share the Democratic
agenda more than the Republican agenda.”
Economic disaffection
benefits Clinton over Obama
Dissatisfaction
with conditions in
“Dissatisfied
Tennesseans like
Overall, the
spring MTSU Poll found that half (50%) of
Economic well-being also influences
state-level agenda
As for the
state-level political agenda, education outpaced healthcare and health
insurance issues as the state’s No. 1 problem overall, but the results are due
to the priority put on education by upper income groups.
This spring,
20% volunteered that education was the state’s biggest challenge in an
open-ended question, followed by healthcare (18%) and the economy (16%). It is
fair to say that, not only are these three issues interrelated, but they are so
close together that the difference in percentages may be due to chance alone.
Family income
is an important predictor of how the No. 1 problem is viewed, and our data also
indicate the extent of families living in poverty or with family incomes below
$50,000.
For families
with incomes less than $15,000 each year (27% of our sample), health issues
were No. 1 (17%), followed by the economy (15%), education (15%), and crime
(12%). One step up the income scale (those making $15,000-25,000 or 8% of our
sample), the economy was No. 1, followed by crime (15%), healthcare (14%), and
taxes (14%). With the $40,000-50,000 group (26% of sample), the economy again
places first (19%), then healthcare (18%), education (14%), and immigration
(12%). Among the top income group (over $50,000; 40% of sample), education
overwhelmingly outpaces other issues (30%), followed by healthcare (18%) and
the economy (15%). The same shift from economic to educational concerns happens
as level of education rises.
The
implications are clear: health and the economy dominate on the lower end of the
income scale. Where money is more plentiful, education – viewed arguably as a
key to a successful future – emerges supreme.
For the
record, in last fall’s MTSU Poll, 22% named health insurance and
health services as the No. 1 problem – down from 29% in spring 2007. However,
in fall 2006, just 19% mentioned health care. Thus, we have returned closer to
2006 levels, an effect probably related to the souring economy.
Support
widespread for higher minimum wage
Those at the top, middle and bottom of the state’s economy do seem
to agree on one economy-related point:
Overall, 59% of state residents say
But
these opinions are politically polarized. Three-fourths (75%) of Democrats
favor a state minimum wage that exceeds the federal minimum wage. By contrast,
58% of independents and just 37% of Republicans favor a higher state minimum
wage.
Sample and method
The poll was conducted by telephone Feb.
11-23 by students in the
The sample varied somewhat from the
U.S. Census Bureau’s latest available projections for age, race and gender
proportions within the state. Such variation commonly occurs because certain
demographic groups are more difficult to contact. The data were thus weighted
to more closely match Census projections for these demographics. Here are the
Census data, the sample data, and the weights:
|
|
Census |
Sample |
Weight |
Result |
|
Age: |
|
|
|
|
|
18-34 |
28.7% |
16.4% |
1.75 |
30.4% |
|
35-49 |
29.0% |
25.7% |
1.13 |
28.5% |
|
50-64 |
25.4% |
33.0% |
0.77 |
25.5% |
|
65+ |
16.9% |
25.0% |
0.68 |
15.6% |
|
|
100.0% |
100.1% |
|
100.0% |
|
Race: |
|
|
|
|
|
White |
83.5% |
88.3% |
0.95 |
82.1% |
|
Black |
15.2% |
7.2% |
2.11 |
16.6% |
|
Other |
1.3% |
4.5% |
0.29 |
1.3% |
|
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
100.0% |
|
Gender: |
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
47.5% |
48.3% |
0.98 |
48.4% |
|
Female |
52.5% |
51.7% |
1.02 |
51.6% |
|
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
100.0% |
Small
variations in reported percentages (1% or less) sometimes result for rounding
variations in different statistical procedures or the way different programs
handle population weights.