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Summary of Findings, Fall 2008
Debate to happen in Obama’s city but
McCain’s state. Next
week’s presidential debate in
Economy trumps other national issues
by unprecedented margin. An
unprecedented 53 percent of Tennesseans name the economy and job issues as the
No. 1 national problem in an open-ended question where the top issues typically
are mentioned by about 20 percent of respondents. (Contact Bob Wyatt,
615-477-8389)
Barometer of national mood at all-time low, with dramatic party split. Our
100-point barometer of the national mood stands at an all-time low of 20. The
rating stands at 41 among Republicans, 16 among independents, and an
astoundingly low 4 among Democrats. (Contact Bob Wyatt, 615-477-8389)
Doubt prevails about Palin’s “bridge to
nowhere” assertion. Most Tennesseans express doubts about vice presidential
nominee Sarah Palin’s assertion that, as governor of
No consensus on the meaning of Obama’s
“lipstick on a pig” remark. Tennesseans divide evenly – and along party lines – on
whether Sen. Barack
Obama’s “lipstick on a pig” comment was a personal attack on Gov. Sarah Palin. (Contact Ken Blake, 615.210.6187)
Alexander outpolls Tuke among
likely voters. Republican incumbent Sen. Lamar Alexander outpolls
Democratic challenger Bob Tuke 50 percent to 26 percent among likely voters in
Tennessee’s race for U.S. Senate, but about a fourth (23 percent) say they
aren’t yet sure whom they favor. (Contact
Ken Blake, 615-210-6187)
Other topics: Bush compares poorly to other U.S. presidents ●
Tennesseans rank economy, energy, education among issues most personally
important ● Most evangelicals think churches should express political
views ● Many want more religious expression by politicians ● Many
discount notion that religious conservatives influence Republicans too much.
Details of Findings
MTSU Poll Political Report,
Spring 2008
Debate to happen in
Obama’s city but McCain’s state
(Contact
Jason Reineke, 615-494-7746)
Next week’s
presidential debate in
Among all
But while McCain
leads Obama 52 percent to 33 percent in the rest of the state, the percentages
flip-flop inside Metro Nashville’s borders to 59 percent for Obama and Biden
compared to 28 percent for McCain and Palin. The sample within Metro Nashville
is too small to rule out a statistical tie, even with such a wide gap in the
percentages. But the data do indicate that while
Most Tennesseans
appear to have made up their minds at this point with regard to who they think
should be the next president. Among
McCain’s supporters, 93 percent say they are certain they will vote for him,
leaving only 7 percent who say that they may still change their minds. Similarly, 90 percent of Obama’s supporters
say they are certain they will vote for him, with only 10 percent stating that
they might change their minds. Among
those who remain undecided, 24 percent say, when pressed, that they are leaning
toward McCain, while 18 percent say they are leaning toward Obama. The rest
reiterate that they are undecided.
The Republican lead
grows larger among likely voters in
The McCain campaign
seems to have had modest success at attracting supporters of former Democratic
candidate Hillary Clinton, whom 22 percent of Tennesseans say they voted for in
the Democratic primary. A quarter of
those who voted for the junior senator from
Race is the most
important demographic difference in presidential candidate preference. Of
African Americans in
In addition to their
own personal preference, poll participants were also asked who they thought was
currently leading the presidential race in the state and the nation. A narrow majority of Tennesseans (51 percent)
estimate, consistent with the poll’s results, that McCain currently has the
lead in the state. However, only 27
percent of Tennesseans estimate, consistent with recent national polling, that
McCain and Obama are tied in the nation as a whole, with 30 percent saying they
think Obama leads nationally, and 24 percent saying they think McCain leads
nationally. The remaining 19 percent say they don’t know who leads nationally
or refuse to make an estimate.
Economy
trumps other national issues by unprecedented margin
(Contact
Bob Wyatt, 616-4778389)
Fully 53 percent of
Tennesseans name the economy and job issues as the No. 1 national problem in an
open-ended question. Typically, the top issue attracts only about a 20 percent
consensus, so a 53 percent consensus is truly extraordinary. The energy crisis
– though related to the economy – is mentioned by just 8 percent, and the wars
in
In fall 2006, by
contrast, 22 percent rated the wars as the top issue, followed by terrorism.
Today, age is the best predictor of perceptions of the No. 1 national problem,
with those under 35 mentioning the economy 60 percent of the time compared to
51 percent for older Tennesseans.
Economic woes also
top the list of perceived problems Tennesseans face at the state level, although
the consensus is less dramatic than at the national level. A little over
one-third (34 percent) name the economy as the top state problem, followed by
education at 12 percent and health issues at 10 percent. The ranking represents
a marked shift from last spring’s poll, when 20 percent mentioned education as
No. 1, followed by health issues (18 percent) and the economy (16 percent).
Those without a college degree are feeling the financial pinch more, with 36 percent mentioning the economy as the top state problem compared to 30 percent for those with undergraduate or graduate college degrees.
Barometer
of national mood at all-time low, with dramatic party split
(Contact
Bob Wyatt, 616-4778389)
Tennesseans’ perceptions of the status
of the nation are – as usual – more gloomy than their perceptions of the state.
Our 100-point barometer of the national mood stands at an all-time low of 20,
dramatically down from 35 in fall 2006, when we last employed the measure. By
contrast, the state barometer stands at a somewhat more optimistic 54, down
from 61 in fall 2006. Last spring, the state barometer was at 57.
The state and national barometers are based on an index computed from the rating of the governor or president, the perception of the state or national economy, and the direction the state or nation seems to be going in.
Party affiliation is the best single predictor of the national score, with Republicans rating the national mood at 41, while for independents and others it stands at 16. But Democrats rate the mood at an astoundingly low 4.
Republicans and independents have a rosier perception of the state’s mood, with a score of 54. For Democrats, that figure is 44 – a score still above Republicans’ rating of the national mood.Interestingly, Republican males rate the state mood at a robust 68, compared to Republican women at 56.
A look at the components of the state
and national barometers reveals that:
Ratings of the national economy in the pits but partisan. Fully 58 percent of Tennesseans rate the national economy as poor, and another 29 percent rate it only fair, while 12 percent say it good.
While 75 percent of Democrats and 57
percent of independents select poor, just 40 percent of Republicans agree –
suggesting, as in previous MTSU Polls, that these groups are living in
different perceptual worlds.
Just under two-thirds (63 percent) of
women rate the economy poor, compared to just over half (51 percent) of men. By
income category, the wealthier are less likely to rate the national economy
poor: 46 percent of those with incomes greater than $50,000 v. 69 percent
between $40,001 and $50,000, 76 percent between $25,001 and $40,000, 63 percent
between $15,001 and $25,000, and 65 percent at less than $15,000.
Of course, Republicans are wealthier than independents and Democrats, with a full majority (56 percent) of Republicans reporting a household income over $50,000 – compared to 36 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of independents.
Tennesseans say
state economy is better than the nation’s. Only about one-fourth (24 percent) of
Tennesseans rate the state economy as poor, while a near-majority (48 percent)
chose only fair. Those with some college or trade school (43 percent) are less
likely to select only fair compared to 50 percent with a high school education or
less and 51 percent of college graduates and above.
Bush approval has hit an all-time
low. Less than a third (32 percent) of Tennesseans approve of the
job George Bush is doing as president, while fully 59 percent disapprove. This
is down marginally from spring 2007, when 34 percent approved. The big drop
came after spring 2006, when Bush stood at 42 percent approval.
The vast cleavage in party affiliation
is again pronounced, with 5 percent of Democrats approving, compared to 23
percent of independents and more than two-thirds (67 percent) of Republicans
approving. The differences are so dramatic that it is possible to posit that
Democrats and Republicans do not live in the same universe, with independent
perspectives more closely aligned with Democratic views.
Gender again has an effect among
Republicans, with 70 percent of men approving compared with 62 percent of
women.
But Bredesen approval remarkably high
again and nonpartisan. Gov. Phil Bredesen’s approval level
stands at 58 percent, about where it stood in 2003 but down from 67% in spring
2007 and 72% in spring 2004. He enjoys the approval of 69 percent of likely
voters – those who report being registered, voting in the last presidential
election, and planning to vote this fall – compared to 44% of those unlikely to
vote. And fully 63 percent of those with incomes above $40,000 approve of
Bredesen, while the figure among those with lower incomes is 49 percent.
Significantly, in a highly polarized era and state, Bredesen transcends party,
with popularity on all sides. But his ratings do not transcend economic
standing, where people with lower incomes are suffering.
Huge majority, including Republicans,
dissatisfied with nation’s direction.
Only 14 percent of Tennesseans are satisfied with the direction the country
is going, but again party affiliation leads to huge differences in perceptions.
Still, 72 percent of Republicans are dissatisfied (despite their majority
approval of President Bush). But 83 percent of Democrats and independents are
dissatisfied. Among Democrats, age has significance, with 72 percent under 35
dissatisfied compared to 88 percent of those 35 and above.
Tennesseans more upbeat at the state
level as usual. Fully 47 percent of Tennesseans are satisfied with
the direction the state is going, but only 34 percent of Democrats are
satisfied compared with 59 percent of Republicans and independents. This
finding makes Bredesen’s approval rating even more remarkable.
Doubt
prevails about Palin’s “bridge to nowhere” assertion
(Contact
Ken Blake, 615-210-6187)
Most Tennesseans express doubts about
vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin’s assertion that, as governor of
About a third of
Tennesseans (39 percent) say they don’t know whether Palin’s assertion is true.
Another 14 percent call the assertion “mostly false,” and 10 percent
characterize it as “entirely false.” Only about a third of Tennesseans say the
assertion is either “mostly true” (28 percent) or “entirely true (10 percent).
Not unexpectedly,
party affiliation is the key predictor of attitudes toward the assertion’s
veracity. Among partisans, whether Democrat or Republican, about a third still
say they don’t know one way or another. But nearly two-thirds of Republicans
describe Palin’s bridge story as either entirely true (17 percent) or mostly
true (44 percent), while just 3 percent describe it as mostly false, and
another 3 percent describe it as entirely false. By contrast, over a third of
Democrats describe the assertion as either entirely false (19 percent) or
mostly false (23 percent), while 15 percent say it is mostly true, and 6
percent say it is entirely true.
Independents are
about as likely as partisans to say they don’t know (39 percent). But landing
between the positions of more partisan Tennesseans, 11 percent of the state’s independents
see the assertion as entirely true, 27 percent see it as mostly true, 17
percent see it as mostly false, and 7 percent see it as entirely false.
With party
affiliation ignored, Palin’s account fares a little better among the state’s
likely voters than among those less likely to vote. Just under half of likely
voters consider Palin’s assertion mostly true (33 percent) or entirely true (12
percent). Among those less likely to vote, by contrast, only about a quarter consider
Palin’s assertion either mostly true (18 percent) or entirely true (8 percent).
Just under a third (30 percent) of likely voters say they don’t know whether
Palin’s version is true or false compared to about half (51 percent) of those
less likely to vote. “Likely voters” are respondents who say they are
registered to vote, report voting in the 2006 U.S. Senate race, and say they
plan to vote in the upcoming election.
Political
partisanship and likelihood of voting matter more than gender when it comes to
perspectives on the truth of Palin’s story. But setting these distinctions
aside, Palin, the first woman to be named as a Republican vice presidential
candidate, seems to enjoy more credibility among men than among women on her
account of the “bridge to nowhere” story. Forty-two percent of men consider Palin’s
version either entirely true (10 percent) or mostly true (32 percent). Among
women, by contrast, 33 percent consider Palin’s version either entirely (10
percent) or mostly (23 percent) true. Most of the difference stems from more
women (45 percent) than men (31 percent) saying they don’t know whether Palin’s
version is true or false.
Speaking during the
Republican convention, Palin said, “I told the Congress, ‘Thanks, but no
thanks, on that bridge to nowhere,” referring to plans to spend $223 million in
federal funds building a bridge to
About a quarter (25
percent) of Tennesseans say they’ve paid “a lot” of attention to news about
Palin’s assertion. About the same proportion say they’ve paid “some” (28
percent), “not much” (21 percent), or “none at all” (23 percent). About a third
of likely voters (34 percent) have paid a lot of attention compared to under a
quarter (15 percent) of Tennesseans less likely to vote. Attention to news
about the comment – and attention to print and broadcast news in general –
tends mainly to reduce the number of “don’t know” responses rather than shift
attitudes about the statement’s truthfulness.
No
consensus on the meaning of Obama’s “lipstick on a pig” remark
(Contact
Ken Blake, 615-210-6187)
About a fourth (26 percent) of Tennesseans
think Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s “lipstick on a pig”
comment was a personal attack on Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah
Palin. Another fourth (26 percent) think he was criticizing the Republican
presidential ticket’s promise to change
Among likely voters – those who report
being registered to vote, voting in the state’s 2006 U.S. Senate race, and
planning to vote again this November – the proportion who say they don’t know
what Obama meant drops to 16 percent, and the perception that he was criticizing
the Republican ticket’s “change” promise barely edges out the personal attack
interpretation 32 percent to 29 percent. A quarter (23 percent) say he meant
something else. These likely voters further divide by party identification,
with a 42 percent plurality of Republicans interpreting the comment as a
personal attack on Palin and a 36 percent plurality of Democrats and
Independents interpreting it as a criticism of the Republican ticket’s promise
to change
As with attitudes toward Palin’s
“bridge to nowhere” assertion, attention to news about the comment in
particular and to print and broadcast news in general all tend chiefly to
reduce the proportion who say they don’t know. Attention to news does not tend
to increase one interpretation more than another.
During a Sept. 9 speech in
Alexander
outpolls Tuke among likely voters, but a third undecided
(Contact
Ken Blake, 615-210-6187)
Republican incumbent Sen. Lamar
Alexander outpolls Democratic challenger Bob Tuke 50 percent to 26 percent
among likely voters in Tennessee’s race for U.S. Senate, but about a fourth (23
percent) say they aren’t yet sure whom they favor.
Among these likely voters, Republicans
overwhelmingly support Alexander (81 percent) with most of the rest (16
percent) undecided. These undecided Republicans tend to live in Middle and
The preferences of Tennesseans who are
less likely to vote also divide sharply along party lines, but – as one might
expect – with proportionally more people undecided, especially among
independents.
Overall,
Tennesseans take dim view of Bush at end of his presidency
(Contact
Jason Reineke 615-494-7746)
Over half of
Tennesseans rate George W. Bush as poor or worse compared to other
Naturally, these
ratings correlate strongly with party identity. A majority of Republicans (56
percent) rate him as “good.” “Good” is also the most popular rating among
independents (31 percent), but a strong plurality of Democrats (46 percent)
consider him the worst U.S. president in history.
There are similarly
sharp political divisions on one of the issues most central to the Bush
presidency – the war in
Besides economy, energy,
environment, taxes, education top personal conserns
(Contact
Ken Blake, 615-210-6187)
But other issues rank high on the
personal agendas of Tennesseans, including energy and the environment, taxes,
and education. By contrast, the hot-button social issues of abortion and gay
marriage rank at the bottom of what most affects Tennesseans personally.
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Pct. Very Important |
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Issue |
Fall 07 |
Fall 08 |
|
Economy |
74% |
82% |
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Energy/Environment |
55% |
72% |
|
Education |
69% |
69% |
|
Taxes |
70% |
68% |
|
Healthcare |
72% |
66% |
|
|
62% |
56% |
|
Terrorism |
54% |
53% |
|
Crime |
56% |
52% |
|
Immigration |
47% |
44% |
|
Foreign relations |
42% |
40% |
|
Political divisions |
37% |
37% |
|
Abortion |
34% |
35% |
|
Gay marriage |
28% |
26% |
|
Race relations |
33% |
26% |
The findings indicate that the
personal importance of abortion and gay marriage has changed little since a
year ago, when both issues also ranked low in personal importance among state
residents. Other issues have moved around a bit, though. The proportion
describing energy and the environment as “very important” rose 17 percentage
points, possibly propelled by rising fuel costs and hurricane-induced gasoline
shortages in Middle Tennessee during the poll’s field time. Health care and
Some groups consider some issues more
important than other groups do, of course. For example, 78 percent of
Republicans consider taxes very important compared to 63 percent of Democrats
and Independents, while over three-fourths (77 percent) of Democrats consider
education very important compared to about two-thirds (63 percent) of
Republicans and independents. Three-fourths of women (75 percent) consider
healthcare very important compared to just over half (58 percent) of men. Nearly
two-thirds of Tennesseans who do not have a college degree say that the war in
Majority of Evangelicals
think churches should express political views
(Contact Bob Wyatt, 616-4778389)
While a majority of Tennesseans (50 percent) think that churches should keep out of politics, a similar majority of evangelicals think churches should express their views.
The strength of Tennesseans’ evangelical beliefs – measured by a 0-5 index composed of questions about being born again, evangelizing others, belief in the Rapture, and degree of Biblical literalism – is key to these findings. Those believing in three of these propositions or more are defined as evangelicals in our poll.
Among those scoring 0 on the evangelicalism scale, 63 percent believe churches should stay out of politics, while 51 percent of those scoring 1 or 2 felt likewise.
Among evangelicals, strong Republicans
(62 percent) were far more likely than others (47 percent) to favor speaking out.
For the record, about one-third of evangelicals are strong Republicans.
About two-thirds (66 percent) of
Tennesseans, however, believe that churches should not endorse candidates.
Here, 55 percent on the far right think they should not, while 68 percent of
all others oppose church endorsements.
Plurality believe too little religious expression by
politicians
(Contact Bob Wyatt, 616-4778389)
Fully 41 percent of Tennesseans think
politicians say too little about religion, while 26 percent say the amount is
about right, and 23 percent say there is too much religious talk.
For the far right, the figure for too
little is 53 percent, dropping to 46 percent for conservatives, 35 percent for
middle of the roaders and liberals, and 30 percent for the far left.
A majority (79 percent) believe that
it is important for have strong religious beliefs (44 percent totally agree,
and 35 mostly agree). Here, church attendance is key, with 57 percent who go
once a week or more agreeing completely, compared to 38 percent of those who go
about once a month, 27 percent who go seldom, and 16 percent of non-attenders.
Plurality