MTSUPoll

How accurate is the MTSU Poll?

MTSU Poll results have shown a high degree of consistency with actual election outcomes since 2002, the first election year in which the poll was fielded using a statewide sample. During that time, the poll has measured state opinion in one general presidential election, two gubernatorial races and one U.S. Senate contest. In each instance, the state-level election results have fallen within the poll results' error margin of plus-or-minus four percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. The table below compares MTSU Poll and election outcomes for each of the four elections.

MTSU Poll accuracy in various elections, 2002-2006

Additionally, during the Fall 2006 Ford/Corker race for U.S. Senate, the poll results showed consistency with contemporary polling by other organizations. See:

http://pollster.com/polls/?state=TN&race=senate_race

The MTSU Poll is conducted twice a year under the direction of Middle Tennessee State University mass communication faculty who specialize in public opinion research. Scientifically valid sampling and data analysis procedures are used. Students working in a supervised, state-of-the-art polling lab conduct the interviews as an integral part of their training in mass communication. Founded in Fall 1998, the poll began as a measure of public opinion in the 39 counties comprising Middle Tennessee. In Spring 2001, the poll began measuring public opinion statewide.