MTSUPoll

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

November 8, 2007

 

CLINTON, THOMPSON CLOSE IN HYPOTHETICAL TENNESSEE SHOWDOWN

Survey also shows majority focused on well-being, healthcare over hot-button topics

 

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. - Tennesseans tend to pick Republican favorite son Fred Thompson when asked which 2008 presidential hopeful they support, but in hypothetical head-to-head contests, Democrat Hillary Clinton runs very close behind him and ties national Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani, a new poll by Middle Tennessee State University shows.

 

Thirty-two percent of Tennessee adults choose Thompson when asked whom they most favor in the 2008 election. Clinton attracts 25 percent, while Giuliani and Illinois Democratic Sen. Barak Obama draw 9 percent each. Nine percent name Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain, and the rest choose someone else.

 

In a hypothetical head-to-head contest, though, Thompson garners 50 percent to Clinton's 42 percent, with 4 percent choosing neither and the rest unsure. Considering the poll's error margin (plus or minus four percentage points), Thompson's lead over Clinton is small, and the two could even be tied. Pitted against Obama, Thompson wins more handily, drawing 55 percent compared to Obama's 34 percent, with 7 percent choosing neither and the rest unsure. In a hypothetical race between Clinton and Giuliani, meanwhile, the two tie, drawing 43 percent each with 11 percent saying they'd vote for neither and the rest not sure.

 

"In sum, a Thompson-Obama contest would be the best-case scenario for Tennessee's Republicans under present conditions," said MTSU Poll Director Dr. Ken Blake. "Other pair-ups are more evenly split, and the likeliest contest - one between current national frontrunners Clinton and Giuliani - produces a tie."

 

Blake said the results show Tennessee shaping up as a potential battleground in the 2008 election. "Tennesseans shunned Democratic favorite son Al Gore when he ran for president in 2000. Furthermore, the politically conservative, predominantly white, evangelical-leaning base that backed George W. Bush over Sen. John Kerry in 2004 is already lining up behind both Giuliani and Thompson. Those factors all favor Republicans. But Hillary Clinton clearly has a good chance in a state that Bill Clinton carried both in 1992 and 1996, that is governed by a popular moderate Democrat, that came within a few percentage points of sending a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 2006, and that shares the country's disaffection with George W. Bush and the Iraq war."

 

The survey also finds that immigration, abortion, gay marriage and other hot-button topics may divide us, but the majority of Tennesseans are focused on concerns such as money, health, taxes and education.

 

-MORE-

 

MTSU POLL, CONT'D

 

Robert Wyatt, director of communication research and associate director of the poll, sees potential good news for Democrats in that pattern. "The issues Tennesseans say affect them most, like the economy, healthcare and education, are issues that Democrats have tended to own politically at least since Roosevelt's New Deal," Wyatt said. "Meanwhile, issues Republicans have campaigned on in recent years - gay marriage, abortion, and even immigration - seem to matter less to Tennesseans, at least in terms of personal relevance."

 

Among other poll findings:

• Less than a third (29 percent) of Tennesseans would like to see Al Gore run for president in 2008.
• Health care was named by 22 percent as the state's No. 1 problem in an open-ended question - down from 29 percent last spring. But a year ago, just 19 percent mentioned health care. Education placed second.
• Heavy majorities want increased federal dollars for elementary and secondary education, Medicare, mental retardation, and the environment. One-third or fewer want increased spending on highways, welfare, and security and terrorism.
• Approval of the governor is 59 percent, down somewhat from 67 percent last spring. This may likely be a post-election bounce up and down: His approval before last fall's election was 57 percent.
• Race makes a big difference on many issues. These include taxes, crime, welfare, perceptions of the economy, legislative approval, approval of the governor and president, and race relations.
• Over half (54 percent) of Tennesseans say things are going badly for the U.S. in Iraq.

 

MTSU Poll results have shown a high degree of consistency with actual election outcomes since 2002, the first election year in which the poll was fielded using a statewide sample. During that time, the poll has measured state opinion in one general presidential election, two gubernatorial races and one U.S. Senate contest. In each instance, the state-level election results have fallen within the poll results' error margin.

 

The current poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 17-27 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 593 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence.

 

Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within four percentage points 95 out of 100 times.

 

For nearly 10 years, the Survey Group at MTSU has been providing independent, non-partisan, and unbiased public opinion data regarding major social, political, and ethical issues affecting Tennessee. The poll began in 1998 as a measure of public opinion in the 39 counties comprising Middle Tennessee and began measuring public opinion statewide in 2001. Learn more at www.mtsusurveygroup.org

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NOTE:

View complete state poll report here.

View complete national poll report here.

**Document files emailed upon request -- contact margie@hallstrategies.com