• Change is good, or at least OK. Less than a quarter of Middle Tennesseans (19%) complain that changes, including population and economic growth, have made Middle Tennessee worse. Most say they have had little effect (39%) or have made life better (37%).
  
  
  
• Crime is only a "minor" problem. Nearly half of those surveyed (46%) rated crime a minor problem, and more than a third (35%) said it was "hardly any problem." Nearly two-thirds said they were not afraid to walk at night alone within one mile of their home.
  
  
  
• Clinton should stay in office. More than half (60%) of those surveyed say Clinton should finish his term as president despite the Lewinsky scandal. A little more than a third (35%) say the president should resign. Meanwhile, Middle Tennesseans generally approve of the way the governor, the Legislature, and Nashville’s mayor are handling their jobs.
  
  
  
• Race relations satisfactory, but one-fourth say Hispanic influx bad. Nearly three-fourths of respondents are very (24%) or somewhat (49%) satisfied with race relations, a figure similar across race groups. More than one-fourth feel that Hispanics have made life here worse.
  
  
  
• Many feel politically powerless, especially the poorly educated. About half of all Middle Tennesseans (52%) agree at least somewhat that people like themselves have no say in what the government does. The feeling is strongest (58%) among those with a high school education or less.
  
  
  
• Science, medicine inspire greatest confidence, press and TV the least. More than half say they have a great deal of confidence in the scientific community (52%) and in medicine (51%). Only 13%, however, say they a great deal of confidence in the press, and only 13% say they have a great deal of confidence in television.
  
  
  
• Middle Tennesseans are mostly healthy and happy. About four out of five (83%) Middle Tennesseans describe their health as either excellent or good. But 11% say they do not have adequate health insurance. About a third (32%) say they are very happy, and nearly two-thirds (61%) report that they are pretty happy.
  
   
• Support for free expression rights is mixed. Respondents support personal rights more than media rights. Nearly three-fourths (72%) support the unconditional right to support any candidate for office, but only one-third (33%) support a similar right for news media.

Changes in Middle Tennessee including economic and population growth have made life better for about a third (37%) of Middle Tennesseans. Another 39% say changes in the region haven’t had much of an effect on life in Middle Tennessee. Less than a quarter (19%) complain that changes in the region have made things worse.

Many Middle Tennesseans credit the region’s changes with improving the standard of living (42%) and with increasing their ability to find a job (56%). About two-thirds (66%), however, complain that changes in the region have made traffic and parking problems worse. The link between changes and worsening traffic problems is significantly stronger among residents of the Nashville metro area (80%) than among residents living in non-metro areas (66%). Most of the region’s residents (60%) say the changes have made little difference in their own neighborhood. Nearly a quarter (23%) say the changes have made life in their neighborhood better, and 12% say the changes have made life in their neighborhood worse.

About one in three Middle Tennesseans (39%) expects the arrival of the Tennessee Oilers professional football team to make life in the region better. Another 41% expect the team’s arrival to make no difference, and 16% say the team will make life in the region worse. Other professional sports teams moving into the region are getting a similar reception. About a third (32%) expect the Predators professional hockey team to make life in the region better, and about a third (31%) expect the Nashville Noise professional women’s basketball team to make life in Middle Tennessee better. 

Despite the prominence in the media and on the public agenda, crime and violence emerge as only secondary issues for most Middle Tennesseans. Only 18% rate crime as a major problem, while 80% consider crime a minor issue (46%) or hardly any problem at all (35%). Further, on an open-ended question, only 12% mentioned crime as the major problem confronting the area. The leading perceived problem was, in fact, education – cited by 20% of respondents.

The perceived seriousness of crime is best predicted by the number of years someone has resided in Tennessee, with long-term residents (19 years and up) rating crime as a major problem (22%), while only 11% of those who have come more recently agree. Residing in the metropolitan area itself is not a significant predictor of perceptions of the seriousness of crime.

Only about one-third (36%) or respondents say they are afraid to walk at night alone within a mile of their home. But nearly one half (48%) of females are afraid, while one-quarter (25%) of males feel likewise. A full 90% feel safe at home at nights, with more recent residents again feeling safer than those who have been in the area 19 years or more. Impressive majorities say they are only slightly or not at all likely to be victims of a violent crime (84%) or a burglary (81%) within the next week.

Nearly one-fourth (24%) say they feel safer from crime today than a year ago, though about one-third (31%) feel less safe. About two-thirds (66%) expect to feel no more or less safe next year. Nearly two-thirds (62%) say that police are doing an excellent (18%) or good (44%) job. Living in metropolitan or non-metropolitan areas is not a significant predictor of ratings of police performance. 

President Bill Clinton enjoys solid support in Middle Tennessee despite the scandal involving Monica Lewinsky. A majority of those surveyed (60%) say the president should finish his term despite the scandal. Only about a third (35%) say he should step down. Furthermore, about two out of every three Middle Tennesseans (66%) say they approve of the way Clinton is handling his job as president. Women (73%) are slightly more likely to approve of Clinton’s job performance than are men (62%).

Meanwhile, the scandal appears to be having little effect on the political viability of Middle Tennessee Democrats running for Congress. Only 10% of those surveyed say they consider the scandal a good reason to vote against Democratic candidates for Congress in Middle Tennessee. Most (88%) say they don’t. Support in Middle Tennessee for a presidential bid by Vice President Al Gore appears unaffected as well. Only 14 percent of those surveyed say the scandal would be a good reason to vote against Gore if he ran for president. Most (84%) say the scandal would not be a good reason to vote against Gore.

Most Middle Tennesseans seem pleased with regional and state politicians. Nearly two-thirds (63%) approve of the job Don Sundquist is doing as governor, and better than half (56%) plan to support his bid for another term in office. Less than a third (28 percent) plan to vote for Sundquist’s Democratic challenger, John Jay Hooker. Despite this support, less than a quarter of those surveyed (18%) say Sundquist has talked enough about what they consider the state’s No. 1 problem. Another 54% say he hasn’t, and about a fourth (28%) admit they don’t know whether he has. Meanwhile, more than half of those surveyed (58%) approve of the way the Legislature is handling its job. Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen, meanwhile, is doing a good job according to about half (55%) of those surveyed. 

Most respondents are very (24%) or somewhat (49%) satisfied with race relations, and there is no significant difference among race groups in level of satisfaction. Additionally, nearly one third (32%) think relations between the races have improved in the last year, while only about one in five (22%) think they have gotten worse.

Nearly two-thirds (62%) of all respondents think that, if blacks don’t get ahead, it is their own responsibility, though 20% blame racial discrimination. Blacks (33%) are significantly more likely than whites (17%) to fault discrimination. But the age of the respondent is an even better predictor for assigning blame. While only 13% of those 50 and over blame discrimination, nearly a fourth (23%) of those under 50 cite discrimination as the cause. Caution is advisable in contrasting those of different racial groups because the absolute number of nonwhites in the sample is, of course, small.

Where affirmative action is concerned, opinion is divided. While four in ten (40%) say that affirmative action does not give people an unfair advantage, more than a third (36%) feel that it does. Though blacks (58%) are more likely than whites (37%) to say that no unfair advantage is given, gender is an even better predictor than race. A near majority of women (fractionally under 50%) say affirmative action gives no unfair advantage, while only about one-third of men (32%) agree.

A hypothetical affirmative action referendum opposing either discrimination or racial preference did, however, pass by a large majority (80%). Those in higher income categories (89% of those $40,001 and up) are more likely to support the amendment than lower income groups (75%).

A near majority (49%) says they would not mind if a hypothetical teen-age son or daughter dated someone of another race. For blacks, the figure is significantly higher (69%) than for whites (44%). And, among whites, those who arrived in Tennessee in the last 18 years are less likely to mind (59%) than longer-term residents (35%).

In an assessment of opinions about whether recent immigrants have made life better or worse, Mexicans and other Hispanics fare worse than people from the former Soviet bloc or Asians do. More than one-fourth (28%) report that Hispanics have made life worse, but the figure for Russians (4%) and Asians (10%) is far lower. By race, 31% of whites but 13% of blacks and those from other races feel that Hispanics have made life worse.

On the positive side, 20% think Asian immigrants have made life better, while 11% agree that Russians and 15% agree that Hispanics have made life better in the area.

Most Middle Tennesseans report that they live in mixed-race neighborhoods (55%). 

About half (52%) of Middle Tennesseans agree at least somewhat that people like themselves have no say in what the government does. Most also agree at least somewhat (61%) that what people like themselves think doesn’t matter much to public officials. About one out of every three (35%) at least somewhat agree that people can’t be trusted, and nearly half (48%) agree at least somewhat that the government can’t be trusted. Slightly below half (47%) feel less informed than most people.

Feelings of political powerlessness are most pronounced among those with a high school education or less. More than half (58%) of those surveyed who have a high school degree or less agree at least somewhat that people like themselves have no say in what the government does. Among college graduates surveyed, only 41% agree at least somewhat that they have no say in what the government does.

Similarly, more than a third (68%) of those surveyed who have a high school degree or less agree at least somewhat that what people like themselves think doesn’t matter much to public officials compared to less than half (44%) of those surveyed who have a college degree. More than a third (43%) of those without a high school degree who were surveyed agree at least somewhat that people can’t be trusted compared to less than a quarter (22%) of those surveyed who have a college degree.

The poorly educated and the well-educated, however, appear equally mistrustful of government. Among the high school educated Middle Tennesseans surveyed, 49% agree at least somewhat that they generally mistrust the government compared to 43% of the college-educated Middle Tennesseans surveyed. The difference was not statistically significant. 

Among major social institutions, science and medicine inspire the greatest confidence in Middle Tennesseans. More than half (52%) of those surveyed say they have a great deal of confidence in the scientific community. Similarly, 51% say they have a great deal of confidence in medicine. The military inspires a great deal of confidence in slightly less than half (47%) of those surveyed.

Organized religion (33%) and education (28%) occupy the middle range. The press and television, both at 13%, inspire the least confidence.

Among major societal institutions in Middle Tennessee, the country music industry inspires a great deal of confidence in about half (49%) of all Middle Tennesseans. Only about a quarter (25%) express a great deal of confidence in state government. 

More than 90% of respondents report being either very happy (32%) or pretty happy (61%) today, and Middle Tennesseans are more optimistic than pessimistic about the future.

The wealthier are dramatically more happy than those with less money. Nearly half (45%) of those with incomes greater than $50,000 report being very happy, while just more than one-fourth of those making $50,000 or below feel likewise.

Fully 40% say they are "pretty well" satisfied with current family finances, and slightly more (42%) report being "more or less satisfied." Here, gender is the better predictor than income. A near majority of males (49%) are satisfied, but only about a third of females (31%) agree. Still, nearly half of females (47%) are more or less satisfied, still leaving more than a fourth (23%) unsatisfied.

Fully 40% of all respondents expect to be better off next year than they are now, while nearly a majority (47%) expects to be the same. Here, those under 50 are more satisfied (59%) than those 50 and older (33%). A majority of respondents (52%) also feel that they are better off today than a year ago. Again, age has an effect, with 50% of those under 50 feeling they are better off, compared to 18% over 50.

About four in five (83%) say they are in excellent or good health – a figure similar to recent national surveys – despite the fact that Tennessee ranks relatively low on other measures of health. But income makes a dramatic difference here: Of those making more than $50,000 per year, 55% describe their health as excellent, while only 30% of those under $50,000 agree. About 11% say they do not have adequate health insurance, and income again is important. Among those making $25,000 per year or under, 17% rate their health insurance as inadequate, a figure that drops to 7% for those making more than $25,000.

Only a tiny minority (5%) expects to be in worse health next year, and 35% expect their health to be better. Age is also important here, with more than half (51%) under 35 expecting to be in better health, but just 20% of those over 50 agreeing. 

Middle Tennesseans provide greater support for personal than for media rights and greater support for political expression than for offensive or obscene expression.

Nearly three-fourths (72%) of respondents support the right of an individual to speak out at all times in support of any candidate for office. Only one-third (33%), however, support unconditionally a similar right of news media to endorse candidates. More than two-thirds (68%) support the individual right to disagree with the president or other high officials at all times, but less than one-third (29%) support unconditionally the right of journalists to report errors politicians made more than 30 years ago. Still, nearly a majority (47%), would defend the unconditional right of journalists to criticize politicians. Here, as elsewhere, education is an important predictor, with far more college graduates (59%) supporting the right to criticize unconditionally than those who are high school graduates or less (38%).

About one-fourth (26%) would protect the right of the news media to run graphically violent photographs under all circumstances. Just more than a third (35%) would protect source confidentiality unconditionally. Fewer (25%) would protect unconditionally the identification of rape victims. Nearly half (49%) would provide no protection whatever to television stations that project election winners before the polls close.

More than one-third (38%) would provide unconditional protection for selling or publishing books with offensive contents, and only about one in five (21%) would provide no protection for such books. A solid majority (58%) would provide no legal protection whatever for those making offensive gestures in public, indicating that the type of offense is very important to respondents. Flag burning, too, receives scant protection, with nearly two-thirds (62%) willing to provide none.

Protection is far lower for sexually explicit media than for other media. A majority (51%) would provide no protection for recordings featuring drugs, graphic sex, or cults. Nearly two-thirds (58%) would provide no protection for TV when broadcasting graphic sexual acts.

Middle Tennesseans were somewhat more supportive of most expression rights than a national sample surveyed in 1991. Differences in time and survey population, however, may account for differing levels of support.
 

This is the first of a series of twice-yearly tracking polls sponsored by Middle Tennessee State University in an effort to paint a continuing statistical portrait of attitudes toward prominent problems and major institutions in Middle Tennessee.

This edition of the Middle Tennessee Poll surveyed, by telephone interview, 621 residents 18 years of age or older from the 39 legally defined Middle Tennessee counties. Interviewers were MTSU students receiving credit as part of their coursework in journalism and mass communication. The poll was conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 13. Telephone numbers were generated at random to represent the full range of households in Middle Tennessee. Once a valid number was contacted, interviewers asked to speak to the youngest male at home, or, if no male was available, the oldest female. This is an accepted method of randomizing respondents within households.

The theoretical margin of error for such a poll is ± 4 percentage points 95% of the time. Factors other than the margin of error, however, affect the validity of a poll, including the way questions are phrased and the order in which they are presented. Some questions, identified in the appendices, were asked only to a random half of respondents; there, the theoretical margin of error is larger. Caution is also advisable when interpreting findings about subgroups, which are often represented by their proportion in the population, and, hence, by small numbers. For such subgroups, the margin of error is far higher. This is particularly true for race, where a sizable majority is white (524 subjects in our sample); numbers are far lower for blacks (68) or those of other races (28).

The sample was reasonably representative of the population when judged against 1997 U.S. Census projections for Tennessee. Males made up 47% of the sample, and females 53%, a figure close to Census estimates for Tennessee. For race, 85% of the sample was white, 11% black, and 5% "other." About 4% identified themselves as Hispanic – an ethnic, not a racial, category. The term "black" is used in this report instead of African American because the term is more inclusive.

The Census estimates that 82% of Tennesseans are white and 16% black, but higher percentages of blacks in West Tennessee means that Middle Tennessee is not significantly misrepresented. Age groups are also close to Census estimates except for those 65 and older, projected to comprise 14% of the Tennessee population but accounting for only 9% in our sample.

For education, 44% of our sample were high school graduates or less; 29% had some college or trade school; 27% were college graduates or above. A full 28% had household incomes of more than $50,000, but 12% were under $15,000 and 18% were $15,001-$25,000One fourth (25%) of the sample was from Metropolitan Nashville-Davidson County – a figure close to 1997 Census estimates (28%). However, the eight-county Metropolitan Statistical Area was a bit underrepresented. About 57% of our sample came from the MSA, while census estimates are about 64%. This variation may be accounted for by higher non-cooperation rates in MSA counties as well as sampling error. But, given these rather minor variations, data were not weighted because weighting produces problems of its own.