How
accurate is the MTSU Poll?
MTSU Poll results have shown
a high degree of consistency with actual election outcomes since 2002, the
first election year in which the poll was fielded using a statewide sample.
During that time, the poll has measured state opinion in one general
presidential election, two gubernatorial races and one U.S. Senate contest. In
each instance, the state-level election results have fallen within the poll
results' error margin of plus-or-minus four percentage points at the 95 percent
level of confidence. The table below compares MTSU Poll and election outcomes
for each of the four elections.
MTSU Poll accuracy
in various elections, 2002-2008
|
|
|
MTSU Poll |
Election |
|
Year |
Candidates |
Count |
Percent |
Count |
Percent |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fall 2002 |
Bredesen |
252 |
51% |
837,284 |
52% |
|
|
Hilleary |
239 |
49% |
786,803 |
48% |
|
|
Total |
491 |
|
1,624,087 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fall 2004 |
Kerry |
241 |
44% |
1,036,477 |
43% |
|
|
Bush |
310 |
56% |
1,384,375 |
57% |
|
|
Total |
551 |
|
2,420,852 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fall 2006 |
Ford |
221 |
53% |
879,976 |
49% |
|
|
Corker |
194 |
47% |
929,911 |
51% |
|
|
Total |
415 |
|
1,809,887 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bredesen |
285 |
73% |
1,247,491 |
70% |
|
|
Bryson |
104 |
27% |
540,853 |
30% |
|
|
Total |
389 |
|
1,788,344 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fall
2008 |
Obama |
228 |
43% |
1,087,437 |
42% |
|
McCain |
307 |
57% |
1,479,178 |
58% |
|
Total |
535 |
100% |
2,566,615 |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tuke |
137 |
33% |
767,236 |
33% |
|
Alexander |
282 |
67% |
1,579,477 |
67% |
|
Total |
419 |
100% |
2,346,713 |
100% |
Additionally, during the Fall 2006
Ford/Corker race for U.S. Senate, the poll results showed consistency with
contemporary polling by other organizations. See:
http://pollster.com/polls/?state=TN&race=senate_race
The MTSU Poll is conducted twice a year under the direction
of Middle Tennessee State
University mass
communication faculty who specialize in public opinion research. Scientifically
valid sampling and data analysis procedures are used. Students working in a supervised,
state-of-the-art polling lab conduct the interviews as
an integral part of their training in mass communication. Founded in Fall 1998, the poll began as a measure of public opinion in
the 39 counties comprising Middle Tennessee. In Spring
2001, the poll began measuring public opinion statewide.